German and Japanese intelligence sources Monday, March 5, confirmed – and qualified – to DEBKAfile reports in the German Der Spiegel and Welt am Sonntag that Western intelligence had known for 11 months that at least one of North Korea’s covert nuclear tests in 2010 was carried out on an Iranian radioactive bomb or nuclear warhead.
Those sources report five facts are known for sure:

1. North Korea carried out two covert underground nuclear explosions in mid-April and around May 11 of 2010 equivalent to 50- 200 tonnes of TNT.
2. Two highly lethal heavy hydrogen isotopes, deuterium and tritium,  typical of a nuclear fission explosion and producing long-term contamination of the atmosphere, were detected and analyzed by  Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBOTO) monitoring stations in South Korea, Japan and Russia.

3. The presence of tritium in one of the tests led several intelligence agencies watching North Korea’s nuclear program and its longstanding links with Iran and Syria to examine the possibility that Pyongyang had tested the internal mechanism of a nuclear warhead on Iran’s behalf.  This strongly indicated to German and Japanese intelligence that Iran had already developed the nuclear warhead’s outer shell and attained its weaponization.  [DEBKAfile via the Marmot's Hole]

It has been long reported that Iran and North Korea have been working together to develop their ICBM technology and the fact they are working together on a nuclear test program should not be surprising either.  I think the big question that needs to be asked is, why is this information being released now when the covert nuclear test happened two years ago?  I let people draw their own conclusions.

Three Iranians detained after accidentally setting off explosives in Bangkok were planning to attack Israeli diplomats, Thailand’s top policeman said Thursday in the first confirmation by local officials that the group was plotting attacks in Thailand.

The allegation came after days of strong accusations by Israel thatIran was behind the botched plot as well as two others in India and the former Soviet republic of Georgia this week. Iran has denied the charges.

Citing the similarity of bombs used in New Delhi and Tbilisi, national police chief Gen. Prewpan Dhamapong said that Thai authorities now “know for certain that (the target) was Israeli diplomats.”

“This issue was about individuals and the targets were specific,” he said. “This was something personal.”

Israel has accused Iran of waging a covert campaign of state terror and has threatened military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has blamed the Jewish state for the recent killings of Iranian atomic scientists and has denied responsibility for all three bomb plots, including an explosion Monday in New Delhi that tore through an Israeli diplomatic vehicle, wounding the driver and a diplomat’s wife, and a foiled attempt the same day in Georgia.  [Associated Press]

Considering there are plenty of Iranian expats in South Korea, Iran has strong ties with North Korea, and the recent announcement by South Korea to cut oil imports from Iran, it appears that South Korea could be a possible target for such a bombing.  I don’t think the Iranians though would risk conducting a terrorist strike in South Korea until it is clear that the South Koreans are going to fully comply with cutting oil imports and implementing financial sanctions on the country.  What a government says and what it actually does are two different stories so we will see what happens.  With this all said, I would think the NIS would be keeping a close eye on all suspected Iranian agents in South Korea right now.

The Israeli government had nothing to do with the ad.

Samsung had nothing to do with the ad.

But an ad for an Israeli cable company featuring cross-dressing Mossad agents who blow up an Iranian nuclear facility using a Samsung tablet has caused a furor in both Iran and Israel. Iran has threatened to ban the sale of Samsung tablets and the commercial itself has now disappeared from Israeli television.

The ad, produced by the HOT cable company, features cast members from the Israeli comedy series “Asfur” dressed head-to-toe as Muslim women to infiltrate Iran. Wearing chadors and clutching purses, the four spies walk past missiles and giant portraits of religious leaders and into the city of Isfahan — the site of a uranium conversion facility and a mysterious explosion in November 2011. As they arrive, one of the travelers smears sunscreen on his face. When his companions look puzzled, he says, “Don’t you know how much radiation there is here?”

The spies then meet a jaded undercover Mossad agent waiting at an outdoor café and looking at his Samsung Galaxy tablet. He tells them that watching on-demand episodes of their comedy series on the tablet has helped him kill time during the two months he’s been in Isfahan conducting surveillance.  [ABC News]

A senior U.S. diplomat visiting Seoul to discuss sanctions on Iran says the U.S. is urging all of its partners to cut back imports of Iranian crude oil and to unwind financial dealings with Iran’s central bank. Our Kim Soyon has more.

Report: Robert Einhorn, the U.S. State Department’s special adviser for nonproliferation and arms control, held talks with South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Jae-Shin in Seoul Tuesday morning. The U.S. official said the situation in Iran relates to North Korea and urged South Korea to adopt the U.S.-led sanctions on the Middle Eastern nation.

This is the first time the U.S. has directly mentioned a reduction in Iranian oil imports to South Korea.

Einhorn expressed concern Iran is evading serious talks on its nuclear program, and said it’s important for the international community to send the nation a clear and unified message.

He also said progress with Iran will help in dealing with North Korea’s nuclear issue, stressing that Seoul and Washington should cooperate on Iran.

Noting South Korea’s economic concerns, Einhorn said the U.S. seeks to maintain the stability of international oil markets and show sensitivity to the economic interests of its close allies like South Korea and South Korean companies. He expressed confidence that by working together, the sanctions can work without the adverse effects he said he knows many in South Korea are concerned about.   [KBS Global]

The only way this is going to work is if the Saudis increase oil production as they have agreed to do to make up for the lost Iranian production and that China cuts their imports as well.

 Most days, the announcement of an $8.5 billion joint venture oil deal between Saudi Arabia and China wouldn’t raise eyebrows. Riyadh, after all, is China’s largest supplier of oil. But with the United States pushing for an oil embargo against Iran, China’s third-largest oil provider, the calculus has changed.

China is emerging as a key test of whether the West and its allies will be able to squeeze Tehran into slowing its nuclear program. The role China will play in the U.S.-led effort is still far from clear, but the United States and others are watching Beijing’s moves closely for clues about its intentions.

As the biggest importer of Iranian oil — some 20 percent of Iran’s output — China has great sway over American plans. Its decision to accept, partially agree to or spurn the push for new economic curbs on Tehran will be crucial to Washington’s efforts to starve Iran’s economy as punishment for the country’s alleged attempts to develop a nuclear weapon.  [McClatchy]

The United States wants countries that buy Iranian petrochemicals to stop their purchases to pressure Tehran on its nuclear program, U.S. State Department special adviser Robert Einhorn said, AP reported Dec. 5. Speaking to reporters in Seoul, Einhorn said Washington and its allies want to send a message to Iran, and that Washington hopes South Korea will join the endeavor.  [STRATFOR]

Hundreds of North Korean nuclear and missile experts have been collaborating with their Iranian counterparts in more than 10 locations across the Islamic state, a diplomatic source said Sunday.

The revelation lends credence to long-held suspicions that North Korea was helping Iran with a secret nuclear and missile program.

It also represents a new security challenge to the international community as it seeks to curb the nuclear ambitions of Pyongyang and Tehran, and thwart trading of nuclear and missile technology.

North Korea has long been suspected of being behind nuclear and missile proliferation in Iran, Syria, Myanmar and Pakistan.

“Hundreds of North Korean nuclear and missile engineers and scientists have been working at more than 10 sites (in Iran), including Natanz and Qom,” the source said, citing human intelligence he declined to identify for security reasons.

The source would not allow the specific number of North Koreans to be published, citing the sensitivity of the intelligence, and would not give further details on the extent of the collaboration. The source spoke on condition of anonymity because of the delicate nature of the issue.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

One option is to solve the Iraq problem by attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. This carries the risk, as I have said many times, of Iranian retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz and a massive hit on the Western economic revival. In that sense, a strike against Iranian nuclear targets alone would be the riskiest. Far safer is a generalized air campaign against both Iran’s nuclear and conventional capability.

But launching a new war, while two others go on, is strategically risky. From a political point of view, it would alienate Obama’s political base, many of whom supported him because he would not undertake unilateral military moves. The Republicans would be most inclined to support him, but most would not vote for him under any circumstances. Plus, brilliant military strokes have the nasty habit of bogging down just as mediocre ideas do. That would end the Obama presidency. Clinton’s war in Kosovo was not an easy option for him strategically or politically.

That leaves another option that we have suggested before, one that would appeal both to Obama’s sensibility and to his political situation: pulling a Nixon. In 1971, Richard Nixon reached out to China while Chinese weapons were being used to kill American soldiers in Vietnam. Roosevelt did the same with the Soviets in 1941. There is a tradition in the United States of a diplomatic stroke with ideological enemies to achieve strategic ends.

Diplomatic strokes appeal to Obama. They also would appeal to his political base, while any agreement with Iran that would contribute to an American withdrawal from Iraq and perhaps from Afghanistan would appeal to the center. The Republicans would be appalled, but Obama can’t win them over anyway so it doesn’t matter. Indeed, he can use their hostility to strengthen his own base.  [STRATFOR Global Intelligence]

Make sure to read the whole article, but this got me thinking that possibly the Obama administration may try to work out a huge diplomatic agreement with Iran much like what the Clinton administration did with North Korea.  After the signing of the 1994 the Agreed Framework that ended the nuclear crisis with North Korea it was considered a great diplomatic success by former President Bill Clinton.  To this day you still hear North Korea apologists claim what a great agreement it was and that former President George W. Bush screwed it up even though the evidence the North Koreans were cheating on the deal with their covert HEU program was obvious.

So could the Obama administration pull off the same type of deal with North Korea?  Possibly agree to build light water reactors in exchange for not building nuclear weapons and the US withdraws troops from Iraq and agrees to allow Iran to move troops into Afghanistan?  If you think my suggestion of Iranian troops in Afghanistan is off the wall then you should read this David Ignatius article in the Washington Post that appears to be a trial balloon for just that.  Any such agreement with Iran could then be topped off with President Obama visiting Tehran just like Richard Nixon going to China.

Such an agreement sounds good, but could it work?  Much like the North Korean Agreed Framework it doesn’t matter if it works as long as in the short term it appears to work.  Clinton was able to ride out the rest of his presidency with hardly any further issues from North Korea.  Could Iran work out the same type of deal or would the Obama administration push for UN inspectors to ensure the Iranians are not cheating on the deal?  It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but it just seems to me that something is building on the Iranian front.

Let’s face it – sanctions do NOT work and will not work if there is a leak or hole in them.  So it is perplexing that a country – South Korea – that we have been protecting with American lives for 60 years is playing us over Iran.  Why? money over principle and long term safety to this planet.

Here is the story:  We have asked South Korea to join us in imposing sanctions on Iran.  This is for us, for them and for the world.

Until Wednesday, South Korea has dragged its feet in response to our request (what’s with that? you would think they would jump in and help at once since we just helped them with North Korea over the sinking of their ship and loss of 46 sailors…..not to mention 60 years of American troops and lost lives.)  South Korea is announcing they are imposing some….but not all.  There is a major gap in what they are willing to do.  And, guess what happens when sanctions are half baked? have gaps and leaks? I don’t need to tell you it means the sanctions are limp and worthless at creating the intended effect – here to discourage Iran from going nuclear.  I know our State Department is publicly acting happy with South Korea like we got all we asked for but that is simply not so.   (And let me repeat, of all countries to snub us!)

Here is the what they have agreed to do:  South Korea, with US pressure, has added 102 Iranian firms and 24 people to a blacklist of who South Koreans can not do business with …..and promised to inspect cargo more diligently (more diligently? how about completely?) and hold back on investment in oil and gas business deals.

BUT…South Korea REFUSES to shut down Bank Mellat – which is the Iranian bank in South Korea that is critical to Iranian business.  This bank operating in South Korea is very important to Iran.  We asked South Korea to shut down this bank.  They are not.  They refused us.  [Greta Wire via a reader tip]

You can read the rest at the link, but I had a report that this posting was being blocked in South Korea.  Can anyone else confirm this?

As far as the South Koreans not strictly enforcing sanctions they are probably taking the pragmatic view that sanctions aren’t going to work anyway because other countries like Russia and China will keep doing business with Iran so why should South Korea cripple itself by not doing business with one its largest energy importers?

Japan has imposed new sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme.

The measures – which go beyond than those imposed by the UN Security Council – ban transactions with some Iranian banks, and also target energy-related investments.

Japan approved sanctions against Iran last month, but US officials have been urging Tokyo to adopt tougher measures.

Many states fear Iran’s nuclear programme is developing atomic weapons; Iran insists its programme is peaceful.
Continue reading the main story

Japan is a major importer of Iranian crude oil, but did not impose any restrictions on oil imports from Iran.

“We took those steps as they are necessary to push for nuclear non-proliferation and prevent its nuclear development,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku told a news conference.

- BBC

Japan is doing the right thing. However with China and Russia continuing to provide Iran help, I don’t know how much good it will do. Iran will go nuclear, it is just a matter of time.

Authorities at Bangkok’s international airport found a baby tiger cub that had been drugged and hidden among stuffed toy tigers in the suitcase of a woman flying from Thailand to Iran, an official and a wildlife protection group said Friday.

The woman, a Thai national, had checked in for her flight and her oversized bag was sent for an X-ray which showed what appeared to be a live animal inside, according to TRAFFIC, a wildlife trade monitoring group.

The woman was arrested at Suvarnabhumi Airport before boarding her Sunday flight. The cub, estimated to be about 3 months old, was sent to a wildlife conservation center in Bangkok.

“The cub arrived at our unit Monday,” said Chaiyaporn Chareesaeng, head of the Wildlife Health Unit at the Department of National Parks’ Wildlife and Plant Conservation Center, where the animal was put under close supervision.

“He appeared exhausted, dehydrated and couldn’t walk, so we had to give him oxygen, water and lactation,” said Chaiyaporn. “We have monitored him closely. As of today, he looks better and can walk a little now.”- Associated Press

The smuggler faces up to a 40,000 baht fine and four years in prison. Since 911 smuggling stuff on your body or in baggage has become incredibly difficult. Some people apparently haven’t gotten the memo.

In other Tiger news, a golfer by the last name of Woods shot 65 yesterday in a PGA Tour golf tournament. IMHO I think we need more than one excellent round before saying Tiger Woods has gotten his golf game back together again.