North Korea on Tuesday ruled out an imminent nuclear weapon test, but vowed to expand and bolster its nuclear deterrence as well as its sovereign right to launch satellites, while slamming the Group of Eight nations’ condemnation of its failed long-range rocket launch in April.

In a remark given to Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency, a spokesman for North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said that the North didn’t have a plan for a nuclear test from the beginning, because it sought to launch a scientific and technical satellite.

“From the beginning, we did not envisage such a military measure as a nuclear test as we planned to launch a scientific and technical satellite for peaceful purposes,” said the official.

“Several weeks ago, we informed the U.S. side of the fact that we are restraining ourselves in real actions though we are no longer bound to the February 29 DPRK-U.S. agreement, taking the concerns voiced by the U.S. into consideration for the purpose of ensuring the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula necessary for focusing every effort on the peaceful development.”

The statement came one day after South Korea, the United States and Japan warned that North Korea will risk facing more sanctions and deepening its isolation if it conducted a nuclear test.

“I think it would be a serious miscalculation and mistake if North Korea worked to engage in a nuclear test,” Glyn Davies, the U.S. special envoy for North Korea policy, said Monday in Seoul after talks with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts.  [Yonhap]

Keep in mind though that in regards to anything with North Korea, actions not words is what matters especially since a lot of activity has been seen to continuing to go on at the North Korean nuclear site.

 North Korea on Tuesday answered world condemnation of its recent rocket test with defiance, threatening “retaliatory measures” if the United States fails to deliver food aid it canceled after the failed launch.

The U.N. Security Council on Monday condemned the rocket launch, widely suspected to be a test of its capability to deliver a nuclear warhead, and ordered the world body’s sanctions committee to impose new punitive measures on the communist-ruled country.

The Obama administration announced shortly after the launch Friday that it was scrapping a Feb. 29 agreement to send 240,000 metric tons of food to North Korea, a promise made as inducement for Pyongyang to abide by previous U.N. resolutions and suspend its nuclear programs.

The Associated Press reported from Pyongyang that the Korean Central News Agency said the nation would press on with its space ambitions because it no longer feels bound by the food aid agreement, now that Washington has abandoned it.

“We have thus become able to take necessary retaliatory measures, free from the agreement,” the North Korean news agency said, citing a statement from the Foreign Ministry. “The U.S. will be held wholly accountable for all the ensuing consequences.”  [Stars & Stripes]

The retaliatory measures is widely believed to be their 3rd nuclear test.  I wouldn’t put it past them to try some other provocation along the West Sea or DMZ as well.

A satellite photo shows the suspected North Korean nuclear test site. (Korea Aerospace Research Institute)

— North Korea appears to be preparing for a third nuclear test, digging a new underground tunnel at a site where previous tests were conducted in 2006 and 2009,South Korea’s official news agency reported.

Photos taken by a U.S. satellite reveal the excavation work at the Punggye-ri site in the country’s northeast, the Yonhap agency reported Sunday.

The work comes as North Korea also prepares to launch a satellite, called Kwangmyongsong-3, sometime this week to commemorate the centennial of founding father Kim Il Sung’s birth.

Although the North insists the satellite launch has no military implications, analysts say the technology involved is essentially the same as for testing a long-range missile. The United States and its allies consider the launch to be a blatant violation of a deal struck with North Korea on Feb. 29 to halt its weapons program in exchange for 240,000 metric tons of food aid. As a result, the food offer has been withdrawn.

In Washington on Monday, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said she was “not in a position to confirm one way or the other” if there were signs that North Korea was planning a nuclear test. But any such test “would be equally bad” to a missile launch and would be “highly provocative” and “pose a threat to regional security,” she said.  [LA Times]

The possibility of a third nuclear test was something I anticipated last month that the North Koreans will try do in response to whatever actions the US and South Korea take in response to their satellite launch.  After the satellite launch the North Koreans want a respectful attitude from the US and South Korea towards the regime in order to build up the credibility of Kim Jong-un domestically and they want a new aid deal.  If they don’t get both expect them to move forward with threatening a third nuclear test until the US and South Korea cave in.

Considering there are Presidential elections coming up in each country the North Koreans fully expect they will be able to launch their satellite, build up Kim Jong-un’s image domestically, and still get an aid deal in order to keep quiet for the next year or two until the elections are over.  If the US and South Korea doesn’t cave in then they will conduct the nuclear test and then move on to taking even more provocative actions such as causing another West Sea or DMZ incident.  The North Koreans are masters at pushing the provocation envelope and getting what they want and they fully expect that this time will be no different.

German and Japanese intelligence sources Monday, March 5, confirmed – and qualified – to DEBKAfile reports in the German Der Spiegel and Welt am Sonntag that Western intelligence had known for 11 months that at least one of North Korea’s covert nuclear tests in 2010 was carried out on an Iranian radioactive bomb or nuclear warhead.
Those sources report five facts are known for sure:

1. North Korea carried out two covert underground nuclear explosions in mid-April and around May 11 of 2010 equivalent to 50- 200 tonnes of TNT.
2. Two highly lethal heavy hydrogen isotopes, deuterium and tritium,  typical of a nuclear fission explosion and producing long-term contamination of the atmosphere, were detected and analyzed by  Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBOTO) monitoring stations in South Korea, Japan and Russia.

3. The presence of tritium in one of the tests led several intelligence agencies watching North Korea’s nuclear program and its longstanding links with Iran and Syria to examine the possibility that Pyongyang had tested the internal mechanism of a nuclear warhead on Iran’s behalf.  This strongly indicated to German and Japanese intelligence that Iran had already developed the nuclear warhead’s outer shell and attained its weaponization.  [DEBKAfile via the Marmot's Hole]

It has been long reported that Iran and North Korea have been working together to develop their ICBM technology and the fact they are working together on a nuclear test program should not be surprising either.  I think the big question that needs to be asked is, why is this information being released now when the covert nuclear test happened two years ago?  I let people draw their own conclusions.

Whereas Pyongyang was once able to trade a promised moratorium on missile tests for larger U.S. and South Korean concessions, it has recently had to trade a nuclear test and nuclear processing moratorium in addition to the missile test moratorium just to get some food aid. North Korea’s repeated and escalating provocations eventually became predictable, or at least less dramatic, because it was clear they were acting in order to exploit the immediate tensions created for some western economic or political concession.

And this partly contributed to North Korea’s decision to attack the South twice in 2010, because the attacks certainly brought attention to the conventional capabilities of the North, as well as its unpredictable and dangerous behavior. The quiet negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang that led to the recent food aid agreement were the direct result of moves by Washington (and in part Beijing) to try to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula following the North Korean attacks.

But the attacks also did something else — they changed South Korea’s political calculus of acceptable response. After the ChonAn incident, the poor handling of the release of information by the South Korean government left the population divided and distrustful of their own government, and many chose not to believe North Korea was responsible. But the Yeongpyeongdo shelling regalvanized the South, as it recognized that Seoul could no longer simply ignore Northern provocation.

But this change in the South’s attitude toward acceptable response may limit North Korea’s ability to continue its negotiating strategy. As Pyongyang moves toward a new round of six-party talks, it would fit within its pattern of behavior to carry out some sort of provocation to add impetus to the talks and give North Korea a new threat to trade away. Pyongyang has already traded, at least on paper, the missile and nuclear tests. Kim Kwan Jin’s warning is a subtle reminder that the North should very carefully calculate the potential gains and losses tied to carrying out another military action against the South, as Seoul will not hold back its response even for the sake of negotiations. [STRATFOR]

As I have pointed out repeatedly the North Koreans have not traded away anything with the recent deal.  They have agreed to suspend their uranium program which is not the technology that they are developing their nuclear weapons around.  Their nuclear program is based around plutonium.  There is currently nothing stopping them from continuing to advance their plutonium based nuclear weapons program.  Additionally if they have centrifuges for their uranium program running in another location this deal is even more meaningless because it only covers the Yongbyon facility.  In regards to the missiles it was once again a meaningless suspension because the North Koreans can just claim an ICBM test was simply a space launch as part of their civilian space program.  So the North Koreans have given little to nothing up for the food aid that will help them celebrate the upcoming 100th birthday of Kim Il-sung.

After the birthday the North Koreans can just manufacturer a reason for getting out of the suspensions they agreed to and blame it all on the US and South Korea like they usually do.  However, I suspect what they will do is a missile test and claim it is a space launch.  It will build up tensions which is something the Kim regime will want to build the credibility of Kim Jong-un within North Korea.  It is a manageable “crisis” that North Korea can use to get additional concessions out of the US and South Korea to suspend their space launch tests.  The increased concessions out of the US and South Korea will be played off as a huge victory by Kim Jong-un against the Yankee Imperialist and the South Korean traitors since they are paying the Young General tribute due to his military prowess.  Another crisis they could manufacture is to make some excuse to take hostages again at the Kaesong Industrial Complex.  I don’t think they would do this due to the cash cow nature of the complex for the regime, but I expect them to create some kind of provocation this year in order to build up the credibility of Kim Jong-un and get increased aid.  I just don’t expect the provocation to be anything as deadly as sinking a ship or shelling a ROK island.  This is because the South Korean government would respond forcefully to such a provocation militarily which would end up being a serious embarrassment to Kim Jong-un.

Anyone else have any other ideas on what provocation the North Koreans could try this year?

 The latest nuclear deal between the United States and North Korea is a good first step to pave the way for resuming long-stalled six-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear programs, a senior South Korean official said Thursday.

The U.S. and the North simultaneously announced the deal Wednesday, under which Pyongyang promised to temporarily halt its uranium enrichment program, accept U.N. inspectors and put a moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests in exchange for food aid.

The agreement, reached in last week’s high-level talks between Washington and Pyoungyang, boosted the prospects of restarting the six-party talks that bring together the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the U.S. The negotiations have been stalled since the last round in late 2008.  [Yonhap News]

Let me just recycle what I said last week because this is exactly what happened.  The North Koreans are never going to abandon their nuclear weapons and the US knows this.  However, the US has no better ideas on what to do about North Korea and thus talks become the goal to make it look like progress is being made.  In return for behaving and agreeing to talks North Korea gets aid while at the same time covertly continuing to work on their nuclear program.  This recent agreement like the one we saw before the death of Kim Jong-il has the North Koreans agreeing to suspend their uranium program that makes it look like the US achieved something even though they achieved little because the North Koreans can continue to work covertly on their plutonium program instead to continue the development of their nuclear weapons program.  Plus does anyone expect the North Koreans to allow any vigorous inspections to ensure there is no covert development?  It is the same thing for their missile program, the North Koreans agreed to suspend ICBM testing, but this means little because instead of testing an ICBM they can just say they are testing a space launch vehicle to put a satellite into orbit to advance their civilian space program.

Everyone knows this is all smoke and mirrors and kabuki theater, but everyone plays along so the US can pretend progress is being made, especially in an election year and the North Koreans can continue to develop their weapons programs and receive aid at the same time.  The South Koreans also play along with all of this because it keeps the peninsula stable which means their economy continues to grow.  The Chinese also like to play along because such a deal ensures the stability of the North Korean regime as well as is ultimately less aid they need to pay to keep the regime a float.  So bottom line all the relevant players are happy except of course the tens of thousands of people stuck in North Koreans gulags and even more that are malnourished in the country, but who cares about them?

Anyway I still expect some kind of provocation from North Korea in the near term as a domestic propaganda ploy to show Kim Jong-il standing up to the evil Yankee imperialists before reaching some larger deal that will be spun domestically as Kim Jong-un forcing the imperialists to pay tribute to him because of the fear of his mighty military genius.  Like I said before this is all kabuki theater, but no one else has any better ideas so everyone just plays along.

By the way someone who has better ideas is One Free Korea and you can read more about what he thinks of this latest deal over at his site.

North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan, right, arrives at Beijing's Capital International Airport, China, Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2012. North Korea's top nuclear envoy arrived in Beijing ahead of important nuclear talks with the United States

A U.S nuclear envoy said Thursday he held substantive talks with North Korea on dismantling Pyongyang’s nuclear programs in return for aid and would continue the negotiations into second day.

The discussions — the first since the death of the North’s longtime leader Kim Jong Il — could provide signs of whether North Korea’s new government is ready to agree to steps demanded by Washington and Pyongyang’s neighbors to restart broader international disarmament talks, which are meant to provide aid and diplomatic concessions in return for the North abandoning its nuclear weapons programs.  [Associated Press]

It may be a new leader in North Korea, but expect more of the same from both North Korea and the US sides.  The North Koreans are never going to abandon their nuclear weapons and the US knows this.  However, the US has no better ideas on what to do about North Korea and thus talks become the goal to make it look like progress is being made.  In return for behaving and agreeing to talks North Korea gets aid while at the same time covertly continuing to work on their nuclear program.  When the talks happen expect some agreement like we saw before the death of Kim Jong-il where the North Koreans agree to something like suspending their uranium program that makes it look like the US achieved something even though they achieved little because the North Koreans can continue to work on their plutonium program instead to build nuclear weapons.  It is the same thing for their missile program, expect some statement saying the North Koreans will suspend ICBM testing, but this means little because instead of testing an ICBM they will just call it a space launch vehicle.

Everyone knows this is all kabuki theater, but everyone plays along so the US can pretend progress is being made, especially in an election year and the North Koreans can continue to develop their weapons programs and receive aid at the same time.  The South Koreans also play along with all of this because it keeps the peninsula stable which means their economy continues to grow.  The Chinese also like to play along because such a deal ensures the stability of the North Korean regime as well as is ultimately less aid they need to pay to keep the regime a float.  So bottom line all the relevant players are happy except of course the tens of thousands of people stuck in North Koreans gulags and even more that are malnourished in the country, but who cares about them?

Anyway with that all said, I would not be surprised if in the near term the North Koreans try to increase tensions, likely with a missile test in an effort to show Kim Jong-un standing up to the US before agreeing to the inevitable kabuki theater deal.  Such a scenario makes it look like the Kim Jong-un made the evil Yankee imperialists submit to his demands for tribute due to the fear of his great military achievement.  Like I said before this is all kabuki theater, but no one else has any better ideas so everyone just plays along.

Hundreds of North Korean nuclear and missile experts have been collaborating with their Iranian counterparts in more than 10 locations across the Islamic state, a diplomatic source said Sunday.

The revelation lends credence to long-held suspicions that North Korea was helping Iran with a secret nuclear and missile program.

It also represents a new security challenge to the international community as it seeks to curb the nuclear ambitions of Pyongyang and Tehran, and thwart trading of nuclear and missile technology.

North Korea has long been suspected of being behind nuclear and missile proliferation in Iran, Syria, Myanmar and Pakistan.

“Hundreds of North Korean nuclear and missile engineers and scientists have been working at more than 10 sites (in Iran), including Natanz and Qom,” the source said, citing human intelligence he declined to identify for security reasons.

The source would not allow the specific number of North Koreans to be published, citing the sensitivity of the intelligence, and would not give further details on the extent of the collaboration. The source spoke on condition of anonymity because of the delicate nature of the issue.  [Yonhap]

You can read more at the link.

 North Korean and U.S. diplomats on Tuesday began a second day of talks during which Washington wants to see whether the North is indeed prepared to take concrete steps toward denuclearization before the stalled six-nation talks can resume.

North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-gwan and Stephen Bosworth, Washington’s outgoing top envoy for Pyongyang, and his successor Glyn Davies sat down at the North’s U.N. mission in Geneva for the discussions, the second bilateral encounter between both sides in less than three months.   [Yonhap]

A senior lawmaker called on the United States, Friday, to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea _ which were withdrawn in 1991 _ to thwart any nuclear threat from North Korea.

The remarks made by Rep. Chung Mong-joon of the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) were expected to cause a stir as a nuclear-free Korea has been a core U.S. policy toward the peninsula.

During a parliamentary session, Chung told Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin that South Korea had no other cards to play to convince North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions.  [Korea Times]

Read the rest at the link, but wouldn’t allowing South Korea to develop their own nuclear weapons be more of a deterrent to North Korea’s nuclear program instead of reintroducing US nuclear weapons?  This would of course anger the Chinese to have a nuclear armed South Korea right across from their major population centers, but it is the Chinese that have been allowing the North Koreans to develop their nuclear weapons.  I think South Korea has every right to develop theirs in response.   Just the legitimate threat to develop nuclear weapons in South Korea may be enough for the Chinese to begin to seriously pressure the North Koreans to curb their nuclear weapons program.

Anyone else have any thoughts on the ROK developing their own nuclear deterrent?