The Republic of Korea – United States Combined Forces Command exercise Key Resolve begins today and runs through March 9.

The command post exercise will involve about 2,100 U.S. personnel in addition to ROK military forces.  About 800 of the U.S. participants will come from outside Korea. Several United Nations Command Sending States will also participate in this exercise.

Exercises such as Key Resolve contribute toward the ROK taking lead for the combined defense of the Republic of Korea in 2015.

Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission observers will monitor the exercise to ensure it is in compliance with the Armistice Agreement.

The United Nations Command Military Armistice Commission informed the Korean People’s Army Jan. 27 through its Panmunjom mission of the exercise dates and the non-provocative nature of this training.  [USFK.mil]

By the way the North Koreans are pissed off as always about the exercise.

The Democratic United Party sent a letter to Washington warning it would repeal the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement if it becomes the ruling party unless Washington is willing to renegotiate. This raises the possibility of the FTA being scrapped after the presidential elections this December.

If a DUP candidate becomes president, he or she simply has to send Washington a letter stating Seoul’s intention to scrap the FTA. Six months later, the FTA automatically becomes void. If that happens, Korea will inevitably have to pay the political and economic price on the international stage.  [Chosun Ilbo]

Click the link to read what would happen if the Korean left makes good on their threat.  With the Korean left poised to likely win the Presidential election I would be very surprised if they actually follow through on this threat because the consequences economically could be devastating.  This is clearly an anti-US play by the Korean left which they often use before elections to get votes.  If they were so concerned about the FTA how come they aren’t threatening to withdraw from all the other FTA’s Korea has signed?  Why just the US?  To further show how disingenuous these people are, former Korean left wing President Roh Moo-hyun is the one who started the US-ROK FTA process.

United States Forces Korea are for the first time carrying out joint exercises with United States Forces Japan and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces. USFJ and Japan Ground Self-Defense Forces are currently engaged in Yama Sakura joint military exercises, which last from January 24 to February 5. Yama Sakura is an annual exercise conducted with the United States Army Pacific, USFJ and JGSDF; this year, the Eighth United States Army, which is stationed in South Korea, will join the exercise for the first time.

On Friday, the Asahi Shimbun reported that 150 troops from the Eighth US Army were taking part in joint exercises in places such as the JGSDF base in Itami, Hyogo Prefecture, from January 24. Earlier, in a press release issued on January, the Eighth US Army explained its role in the exercise, saying that it would “serv[e] the role as higher command for participating U.S. Forces.”

The reason the joint exercise between USFK, USFJ and SDF is drawing attention is its connection to the increasing of so-called “strategic flexibility,” which allows USFK to be deployed in other conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region in times of emergency. The US has been engaged in a project to merge its bases in South Korea and gather them in Pyeongtaek, in order to reorganize the USFK from a mere occupying force to an all-round expedition force. In March last year, it temporarily transferred 500 troops from the Second Infantry Division to the Philippines to take part in the “Balikatan” exercise.

This series of measures by the US is being taken with China in mind. Last year, the US Army announced plans to station 2,500 marines in Darwin, northern Australia, and deploy a top-of-the-line warship in Singapore. Earlier, it strengthened cooperation with Vietnam, sending warships to Cam Ranh Bay for the first time since its defeat in the Vietnam War in 1975, It has recently been holding discussions with authorities in the Philippines to increase its military presence there for the first time in more than 20 years. The US’s recent policy of slashing defense spending, too, sends an advance warning that “strategic flexibility” of USFK is to become a reality.

The current exercise demonstrates that the character of USFK is changing. Accordingly, the importance of the Pyeongtaek base, the closest base to Beijing, will continue to increase.
Another reason the Yama Sakura exercise is drawing attention is that one of the participants is Japan’s SDF. Japan has been trying to strengthen the defensive alliance between itself, South Korea and the US, citing the threat of North Korea. The South Korean government has responded half-heartedly. Korean public sentiment is one thing, but there are dangerous aspects to increasing military ties with Japan from a military strategic point of view, too. The US is not in a position where it can keep ignoring Japan’s wishes. The Japanese government’s release of images of the joint exercise to the media on Thursday is not something to be overlooked either. Japanese media showed interest in talks held between South Korean, US and Japanese vice-defense ministers from January 30-31, but Korea’s Ministry of National Defense played down their significance.

Korea, in addition to striking a balance between the US and China, has been lumbered with the additional burden of maintaining an appropriate military relationship with Japan.  [Hankyoreh via the Marmot's Hole]

Here is a note to the Hankyoreh and the Korean left, strategic flexibility of USFK is already a reality and has been for a few years since the 2nd Brigade 2ID was deployed off the peninsula to Iraq in 2004.  USFK has also deployed forces to assist with natural disasters such as with the aftermath of the Asian Tsunami in 2005.  Other units have participated in deployments and exercises off the peninsula as well over the past few years.  However, with only one combat brigade on the peninsula there isn’t a whole lot of combat power on the peninsula to draw from even if the Pentagon wanted to more freely use forces stationed in South Korea.  When the Korean left talks “strategic flexibility” they are just trying to continue the narrative that the US wants to use forces stationed in Korea to attack China with and draw South Korea into a war with China.

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Via USFK Facebook Page.

The South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) says its biggest annual military drill will kick off late next month, and it has already notified North Korea of the impending bilateral exercise. Our Kim Soyon tells us more.

Report: The Combined Forces Command notified North Korea Friday morning of the schedule for Exercise Key Resolve through its communication channel at the Joint Security Area in the border village of Panmunjeom. The exercise will be similar in size to last year’s drill with 200-thousand South Korean troops and 21-hundred U.S. troops taking part. Eight-hundred of the U.S. troops will be deployed from overseas.

CFC commander, Gen. James Thurman, says Exercise Key Resolve is an annual training event designed to ensure readiness to defend the Republic of Korea and sustain the capabilities that strengthen the bilateral alliance. The command says the drills are planned months ahead and have no connection to current Korean Peninsula affairs.

Thurman added the exercise is conducted based on actual scenarios involving various threats. The general hinted that the drills will also prepare forces for contingencies on the peninsula, such as sudden changes within North Korea, by noting the exercise will also ready the government’s crisis management capabilities during crucial times.

At the same time, Exercise Foal Eagle will be held separately from March first to April 30th. Eleven-thousand U.S. forces, including ten-thousand-five-hundred stationed overseas, will take part in Foal Eagle. Divisions of South Korean troops and their subordinate units will also take part. The combined forces will carry out ground maneuver training as well as airborne, maritime, expeditionary and special operations training during the drill.   [KBS Global]

The United States and South Korea will step up efforts to head off provocations and attacks from the North, the countries’ defense chiefs said Friday following annual security talks.

The talks were held on the last day of U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s weeklong visit to the Asia-Pacific region and resulted in the joint statement reaffirming the long-standing strategic alliance against the isolated, autocratic North Korean regime.

The U.S. contingent included Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey and U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. James Thurman, in addition to Panetta.

In a news conference following the talks, South Korean Defense Minster Kim Kwan-jin said he and Panetta had agreed the two countries should beef up operations in the volatile Northwest Islands, the site of several attacks by North Korea in recent years. A U.N. commission blamed North Korea for the March 2010 sinking of a South Korean military ship, and the North shelled a border island in the region in November.

“Next year, I believe that the possibility of North Korea conducting additional provocations is very high,” Kim said, citing the yearlong centennial celebration of the birth of the regime’s founder.

To prepare, South Korea and the U.S. are working on a joint counter-provocation plan, though Panetta stopped short of saying the U.S. would respond with its own military assets to provocations.  [Stars & Stripes]

I think something else important to remember next year is that there is a South Korean presidential election.  If a North Korea friendly politician is ahead in the polls I don’t think the North Koreans are likely to mount a provocation that could back fire politically on that candidate.  However, with the competing factions in North Korea vying for influence with the military being one of them this is no sure thing they wouldn’t launch a provocation anyway.

“A New Security Order in East Asia and the ROK-US Alliance”

Ambassador Jong (former ROK Ambassador to Japan and England), Professor Ha, Professor Chun, members of the East Asia Institute and Distinguished guests, thank you for your participation in this great event.

Professor Chun, thank you for your kind introduction and for inviting me to speak today. I am honored and privileged to speak to this distinguished group.  Your work in expanding the dialogue about Northeast Asian affairs and the importance of the ROK-U.S. Alliance provides a great service to both of our nations, thank you.

As the Commander of United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command, and United States Forces Korea, I am honored to have the privilege of leading the outstanding Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines, and civilians of this command, which stands by with the great ROK military, the military element of the greatest alliance in the world, the ROK-U.S. Alliance, which only gets stronger every day.  The theme of this conference, “A New Security Order in East Asia and the ROK-U.S. Alliance,” is relevant as we look both at the dynamics of the Northeast Asia region and the future of the ROK-U.S. Alliance.

Northeast Asia is an important region for the greater global community.  This region is home to some of the largest and fastest growing economies and militaries in the world.  The countries of Northeast Asia produce one fifth of the world economic output and is responsible for 19% of world trade.  Most notably, Northeast Asia continues to be a global economic engine despite current global financial challenges that we see around the globe.

This region is also home to 4 of the 6 largest militaries in the world.  3 countries in the region possess nuclear capabilities and all the countries in this region continue to modernize their armed forces to meet current and perceived future security threats.  We are seeing countries in the region embracing efforts to attain and develop new and asymmetric technologies as alternatives to maintaining large standing militaries.

Regrettably, North Korea continues to lead this effort.  North Korea has turned to ballistic missile technology, weapons of mass destruction, and other asymmetric capabilities to meet its perceived security needs.  The United Nations Security Council and responsible nations in the region have called on the north to abandon these weapons programs.  I again call on north Korea to cease its development and testing of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery and fulfill its existing commitments to denuclearize.  I believe north Korea’s growing asymmetric capabilities increasingly threaten peninsular and regional stability.  We must remain prepared and ready to defend against and deter these capabilities.

Over the last 60 years the ROK-U.S. Alliance has grown into one of the strongest alliances in the world.  It has grown from one singularly focused on the defense of a valued ally, to one of shared intrinsic values like democracy, free-market economics, and human rights.  Last week, our tremendous Alliance became more multi-faceted through the U.S. Senate ratification of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.  Today, this Alliance stands very strong and it’s ready to deter aggression on the Korean peninsula and defend these values.  As always, our Alliance is prepared to fight and win if deterrence should fail.

That said, the ROK-U.S. Alliance is about much more than North Korea.  As a result of our enduring commitment to our South Korean allies and the unparalleled strategic importance of the Northeast Asia, I want to emphasize that the U.S. remains committed in the region both now and in the future.  The United States is and always will be a strategic partner with its allies and friends in this region.  The ROK-U.S. alliance is one example and a pillar of this commitment.

While our alliance is meeting the security challenges that it faces today, it is evolving to ensure that it can meet any potential security challenges in the future.  Looking ahead, we must continue strengthening and transforming our Alliance in response to current and future security challenges.  The United States fully supports our South Korean ally’s increasing initiatives to maintain international peace and stability.  We are grateful for ROK military contributions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and off the Horn of Africa.  We are also grateful for the hard-work the Republic of Korea does world-wide to eliminate poverty and disease.  We look forward to even greater cooperation on these international issues in the future.

In fact, our governments have already developed a plan to prepare for this future of greater bilateral partnership.  In June 2009, president Obama and President Lee signed and issued the Joint Vision Statement.  This statement affirms our shared common values and asserts that these shared values transcend the Korean peninsula and the region.  The Joint Vision Statement commits our countries to building a comprehensive strategic alliance of bilateral, regional, and global scope to meet this reality.

In order to implement the Joint Vision Statement, we have developed and implemented Strategic Alliance 2015.  This is a comprehensive plan that allows the Alliance to synchronize multiple key initiatives to successfully transfer wartime operational control of South Korean military forces to the chairman of the Republic of Korea Joints Chiefs of Staff.  It also synchronizes on-going initiatives using a whole of government approach to propel the Alliance into the future.

We can never overlook that in the whole of government, the military is just one piece.

Strategic Alliance 2015 includes four major components that I will highlight.  First, we continue to refine and develop realistic plans and execute exercises based on the full range of possible North Korean actions including provocations, instability, and direct attack.  Second, we are changing our ROK-U.S. organizational structures and command and control relationships by 2015.  Third, the ROK military is developing additional capabilities that will allow them to be ready for OPCON transition.  Finally, we are realizing greater efficiencies by consolidation of U.S. forces into two enduring hubs around Pyeongtaek and Daegu.

The Alliance is moving forward with the implementation of this plan.  We are well into executing the Land Partnership Plan and look forward to gaining momentum in executing the Yongsan Relocation Plan.  We continue to review these plans and all of our transformation initiatives that are currently ongoing to ensure that we are positioning capabilities in the proper location and gaining desired efficiencies.  We are ensuring that these initiatives meet the current and future needs of the Alliance.

Our exercise program is in full implementation.  We are using our exercises to confirm that our plans are valid and the proper organizational structures with proper command and control relationships are in place.  Our exercise program is of particular importance as it enables us to identify and refine capabilities, both military and civilian, which I believe is required by our great Alliance.

It is of vital importance that both of our countries invest in necessary military capabilities to be best prepared for an uncertain future.  There’s one thing I’ve learned when we try to predict the future, we get it wrong.  Under Strategic Alliance 2015, there will be no loss of any capability currently available to the Alliance.  However, as we move beyond transfer of wartime operational control of South Korean forces and look at global security cooperation, it is important that both partners have a shared commitment to building these capabilities so that we complement one another.  It is of critical importance that the ROK military have the equipment, organization, and training in place to lead the joint-combined fight.  It is imperative that the ROK possess persistent surveillance; interoperable joint command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence systems; anti-submarine and counter-mine warfare naval capabilities, and capabilities to offset asymmetric threats to ensure the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff have all the tools in their kit bag they need to lead the defense of this great nation.

Strategic Alliance 2015 is about much more than the transition of wartime operational control.  It synchronizes ongoing initiatives using a whole of government approach to propel the Alliance into the future.   Our countries need to develop and resource our whole of government capabilities. I’m specifically talking about diplomatic, informational, and economic tools are just as important as military tools in dealing with security challenges.  It is important that investment is made in the resourcing and training of these elements of national power.   They are important shaping activities, which when used concurrently, can mitigate the need for military force.  Recent north Korean provocations and attacks only serve to highlight the importance of increased capabilities across the whole of government, not just the military.  As we face challenges we should always focus on Alliance based solutions for Alliance problems.

Strategic Alliance 2015 builds upon the already unbreakable foundation of our great Alliance.  It enables our Alliance to realize the full extent of capabilities to deter or defeat north Korean aggression.  It also enables the Alliance to provide a greater contribution to peace and stability in the region and around the globe.  I think that’s critical.

This conference shows you are as committed to peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and the region as the governments of our two countries.  The ROK-U.S. Alliance is the strongest in the world and as long as I’m the UNC/CFC/USCK commander, I will do all that I can to strengthen the alliance.  Regrettably, my schedule does not allow me to stay and participate in a question and answer session.  Thank you for participating in this great event.

Kamsahamnida

Katchi Kapshida

The Presidential Office announced that President Lee Myung-bak will make a state visit to the United States in mid-October on the invitation of U.S. President Barack Obama.

During his visit, President Lee will attend an official welcoming ceremony in Washington D.C. and then join Obama for a summit to discuss bilateral issues, including the South Korea-U.S. free trade agreement and the North Korean nuclear situation.

Aside from the state dinner hosted by President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama, Lee will attend a luncheon co-hosted by Vice President Joseph Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with the aim of strengthening bilateral ties.

The Presidential Office said Lee’s visit will be the fifth by a head of state to the U.S. since Obama took office. The office said this trip should strengthen the South Korea-U.S. bond based on the solid mutual goodwill and trust the two leaders have accumulated.  [KBS Global]

It really is amazing that after all this time the KORUS FTA has yet to be implemented between the two countries.  I really don’t have a problem with the KORUS FTA considering similarities in labor and environmental protection between the two countries. I think it would most likely be a win-win for each country though I am interested to see if goods from the Kaesong Complex in North Korea will be allowed to be exported to the US.

I guess we will see what happens next month with the FTA.

For those that haven’t read my prior postings on this topic I highly recommend that today be a good time to do so:

• GI Myths:  The 2002 Armored Vehicle Accident
•  Top Five Lessons Learned from the Tragedy
• Scenes of the Highway 56 Memorial and Accident Site

The South Korean military may send U.S. forces residing in South Korea to Baengnyeong Island, one of the five western border islands closest to North Korea. The islands include Yeonpyeong Island which was shelled by North Korea last November.

A South Korean military official related to the matter told the JoongAng Ilbo yesterday that the decision, if made, would be to “heighten restraint against North Korea.”

According to the same source, the Blue House considered sending combat troops from the U.S. forces to Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong islands after last November’s shelling. However, the plan had fallen through due to opposition from the U.S. military. As a result, the South Korean military is now pushing for U.S. communication troops to be sent to Baengnyeong Island instead, although the size or time of the deployment has not yet been decided, the source said.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

In my opinion this appears to me to be an attempt by the South Koreans to use the American soldiers as a way to make North Korea think twice about shelling these islands because it is one thing to kill ROK military troops, but they would open a whole other range of possible scenarios by killing US troops stationed on the island.  It is something I think would definitely make the North Koreans think a little bit longer and harder before attacking the island.  However, something else that the South Korean government probably finds favorable about putting US troops on these islands is that they can then push off responsibility for a response to a North Korean provocation to the US government.  If the US responds to a North Korean provocation such as bombing an artillery site that attacked the island and the North Koreans respond in kind with an attack that kills civilians in Seoul, the Korean government has domestic political cover because they can push responsibility for what happpened on to the United States.  This is likely the same rationale once again in my opinion on what the ROK government keeps putting off the Operational Control issue as well for as long as possible. 

Any decision to respond to a North Korean provocation needs to be a ROK government decision and not the US.  That is why I am a strong supporter of the US giving Operational Control to the South Koreans as soon as possible as well as continuing with the USFK transformation plan to remove the 2nd Infantry Division from near the DMZ and US troops out of Seoul to Camp Humphreys which is further south and out of artillery range.  These changes will further push responsibility on to the ROK government to be the ones to decide how to respond to a North Korean provocation