The South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) says its biggest annual military drill will kick off late next month, and it has already notified North Korea of the impending bilateral exercise. Our Kim Soyon tells us more.

Report: The Combined Forces Command notified North Korea Friday morning of the schedule for Exercise Key Resolve through its communication channel at the Joint Security Area in the border village of Panmunjeom. The exercise will be similar in size to last year’s drill with 200-thousand South Korean troops and 21-hundred U.S. troops taking part. Eight-hundred of the U.S. troops will be deployed from overseas.

CFC commander, Gen. James Thurman, says Exercise Key Resolve is an annual training event designed to ensure readiness to defend the Republic of Korea and sustain the capabilities that strengthen the bilateral alliance. The command says the drills are planned months ahead and have no connection to current Korean Peninsula affairs.

Thurman added the exercise is conducted based on actual scenarios involving various threats. The general hinted that the drills will also prepare forces for contingencies on the peninsula, such as sudden changes within North Korea, by noting the exercise will also ready the government’s crisis management capabilities during crucial times.

At the same time, Exercise Foal Eagle will be held separately from March first to April 30th. Eleven-thousand U.S. forces, including ten-thousand-five-hundred stationed overseas, will take part in Foal Eagle. Divisions of South Korean troops and their subordinate units will also take part. The combined forces will carry out ground maneuver training as well as airborne, maritime, expeditionary and special operations training during the drill.   [KBS Global]

The United States and South Korea will step up efforts to head off provocations and attacks from the North, the countries’ defense chiefs said Friday following annual security talks.

The talks were held on the last day of U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta’s weeklong visit to the Asia-Pacific region and resulted in the joint statement reaffirming the long-standing strategic alliance against the isolated, autocratic North Korean regime.

The U.S. contingent included Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey and U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. James Thurman, in addition to Panetta.

In a news conference following the talks, South Korean Defense Minster Kim Kwan-jin said he and Panetta had agreed the two countries should beef up operations in the volatile Northwest Islands, the site of several attacks by North Korea in recent years. A U.N. commission blamed North Korea for the March 2010 sinking of a South Korean military ship, and the North shelled a border island in the region in November.

“Next year, I believe that the possibility of North Korea conducting additional provocations is very high,” Kim said, citing the yearlong centennial celebration of the birth of the regime’s founder.

To prepare, South Korea and the U.S. are working on a joint counter-provocation plan, though Panetta stopped short of saying the U.S. would respond with its own military assets to provocations.  [Stars & Stripes]

I think something else important to remember next year is that there is a South Korean presidential election.  If a North Korea friendly politician is ahead in the polls I don’t think the North Koreans are likely to mount a provocation that could back fire politically on that candidate.  However, with the competing factions in North Korea vying for influence with the military being one of them this is no sure thing they wouldn’t launch a provocation anyway.

“A New Security Order in East Asia and the ROK-US Alliance”

Ambassador Jong (former ROK Ambassador to Japan and England), Professor Ha, Professor Chun, members of the East Asia Institute and Distinguished guests, thank you for your participation in this great event.

Professor Chun, thank you for your kind introduction and for inviting me to speak today. I am honored and privileged to speak to this distinguished group.  Your work in expanding the dialogue about Northeast Asian affairs and the importance of the ROK-U.S. Alliance provides a great service to both of our nations, thank you.

As the Commander of United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command, and United States Forces Korea, I am honored to have the privilege of leading the outstanding Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines, and civilians of this command, which stands by with the great ROK military, the military element of the greatest alliance in the world, the ROK-U.S. Alliance, which only gets stronger every day.  The theme of this conference, “A New Security Order in East Asia and the ROK-U.S. Alliance,” is relevant as we look both at the dynamics of the Northeast Asia region and the future of the ROK-U.S. Alliance.

Northeast Asia is an important region for the greater global community.  This region is home to some of the largest and fastest growing economies and militaries in the world.  The countries of Northeast Asia produce one fifth of the world economic output and is responsible for 19% of world trade.  Most notably, Northeast Asia continues to be a global economic engine despite current global financial challenges that we see around the globe.

This region is also home to 4 of the 6 largest militaries in the world.  3 countries in the region possess nuclear capabilities and all the countries in this region continue to modernize their armed forces to meet current and perceived future security threats.  We are seeing countries in the region embracing efforts to attain and develop new and asymmetric technologies as alternatives to maintaining large standing militaries.

Regrettably, North Korea continues to lead this effort.  North Korea has turned to ballistic missile technology, weapons of mass destruction, and other asymmetric capabilities to meet its perceived security needs.  The United Nations Security Council and responsible nations in the region have called on the north to abandon these weapons programs.  I again call on north Korea to cease its development and testing of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery and fulfill its existing commitments to denuclearize.  I believe north Korea’s growing asymmetric capabilities increasingly threaten peninsular and regional stability.  We must remain prepared and ready to defend against and deter these capabilities.

Over the last 60 years the ROK-U.S. Alliance has grown into one of the strongest alliances in the world.  It has grown from one singularly focused on the defense of a valued ally, to one of shared intrinsic values like democracy, free-market economics, and human rights.  Last week, our tremendous Alliance became more multi-faceted through the U.S. Senate ratification of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.  Today, this Alliance stands very strong and it’s ready to deter aggression on the Korean peninsula and defend these values.  As always, our Alliance is prepared to fight and win if deterrence should fail.

That said, the ROK-U.S. Alliance is about much more than North Korea.  As a result of our enduring commitment to our South Korean allies and the unparalleled strategic importance of the Northeast Asia, I want to emphasize that the U.S. remains committed in the region both now and in the future.  The United States is and always will be a strategic partner with its allies and friends in this region.  The ROK-U.S. alliance is one example and a pillar of this commitment.

While our alliance is meeting the security challenges that it faces today, it is evolving to ensure that it can meet any potential security challenges in the future.  Looking ahead, we must continue strengthening and transforming our Alliance in response to current and future security challenges.  The United States fully supports our South Korean ally’s increasing initiatives to maintain international peace and stability.  We are grateful for ROK military contributions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and off the Horn of Africa.  We are also grateful for the hard-work the Republic of Korea does world-wide to eliminate poverty and disease.  We look forward to even greater cooperation on these international issues in the future.

In fact, our governments have already developed a plan to prepare for this future of greater bilateral partnership.  In June 2009, president Obama and President Lee signed and issued the Joint Vision Statement.  This statement affirms our shared common values and asserts that these shared values transcend the Korean peninsula and the region.  The Joint Vision Statement commits our countries to building a comprehensive strategic alliance of bilateral, regional, and global scope to meet this reality.

In order to implement the Joint Vision Statement, we have developed and implemented Strategic Alliance 2015.  This is a comprehensive plan that allows the Alliance to synchronize multiple key initiatives to successfully transfer wartime operational control of South Korean military forces to the chairman of the Republic of Korea Joints Chiefs of Staff.  It also synchronizes on-going initiatives using a whole of government approach to propel the Alliance into the future.

We can never overlook that in the whole of government, the military is just one piece.

Strategic Alliance 2015 includes four major components that I will highlight.  First, we continue to refine and develop realistic plans and execute exercises based on the full range of possible North Korean actions including provocations, instability, and direct attack.  Second, we are changing our ROK-U.S. organizational structures and command and control relationships by 2015.  Third, the ROK military is developing additional capabilities that will allow them to be ready for OPCON transition.  Finally, we are realizing greater efficiencies by consolidation of U.S. forces into two enduring hubs around Pyeongtaek and Daegu.

The Alliance is moving forward with the implementation of this plan.  We are well into executing the Land Partnership Plan and look forward to gaining momentum in executing the Yongsan Relocation Plan.  We continue to review these plans and all of our transformation initiatives that are currently ongoing to ensure that we are positioning capabilities in the proper location and gaining desired efficiencies.  We are ensuring that these initiatives meet the current and future needs of the Alliance.

Our exercise program is in full implementation.  We are using our exercises to confirm that our plans are valid and the proper organizational structures with proper command and control relationships are in place.  Our exercise program is of particular importance as it enables us to identify and refine capabilities, both military and civilian, which I believe is required by our great Alliance.

It is of vital importance that both of our countries invest in necessary military capabilities to be best prepared for an uncertain future.  There’s one thing I’ve learned when we try to predict the future, we get it wrong.  Under Strategic Alliance 2015, there will be no loss of any capability currently available to the Alliance.  However, as we move beyond transfer of wartime operational control of South Korean forces and look at global security cooperation, it is important that both partners have a shared commitment to building these capabilities so that we complement one another.  It is of critical importance that the ROK military have the equipment, organization, and training in place to lead the joint-combined fight.  It is imperative that the ROK possess persistent surveillance; interoperable joint command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence systems; anti-submarine and counter-mine warfare naval capabilities, and capabilities to offset asymmetric threats to ensure the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff have all the tools in their kit bag they need to lead the defense of this great nation.

Strategic Alliance 2015 is about much more than the transition of wartime operational control.  It synchronizes ongoing initiatives using a whole of government approach to propel the Alliance into the future.   Our countries need to develop and resource our whole of government capabilities. I’m specifically talking about diplomatic, informational, and economic tools are just as important as military tools in dealing with security challenges.  It is important that investment is made in the resourcing and training of these elements of national power.   They are important shaping activities, which when used concurrently, can mitigate the need for military force.  Recent north Korean provocations and attacks only serve to highlight the importance of increased capabilities across the whole of government, not just the military.  As we face challenges we should always focus on Alliance based solutions for Alliance problems.

Strategic Alliance 2015 builds upon the already unbreakable foundation of our great Alliance.  It enables our Alliance to realize the full extent of capabilities to deter or defeat north Korean aggression.  It also enables the Alliance to provide a greater contribution to peace and stability in the region and around the globe.  I think that’s critical.

This conference shows you are as committed to peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and the region as the governments of our two countries.  The ROK-U.S. Alliance is the strongest in the world and as long as I’m the UNC/CFC/USCK commander, I will do all that I can to strengthen the alliance.  Regrettably, my schedule does not allow me to stay and participate in a question and answer session.  Thank you for participating in this great event.

Kamsahamnida

Katchi Kapshida

The Presidential Office announced that President Lee Myung-bak will make a state visit to the United States in mid-October on the invitation of U.S. President Barack Obama.

During his visit, President Lee will attend an official welcoming ceremony in Washington D.C. and then join Obama for a summit to discuss bilateral issues, including the South Korea-U.S. free trade agreement and the North Korean nuclear situation.

Aside from the state dinner hosted by President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama, Lee will attend a luncheon co-hosted by Vice President Joseph Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with the aim of strengthening bilateral ties.

The Presidential Office said Lee’s visit will be the fifth by a head of state to the U.S. since Obama took office. The office said this trip should strengthen the South Korea-U.S. bond based on the solid mutual goodwill and trust the two leaders have accumulated.  [KBS Global]

It really is amazing that after all this time the KORUS FTA has yet to be implemented between the two countries.  I really don’t have a problem with the KORUS FTA considering similarities in labor and environmental protection between the two countries. I think it would most likely be a win-win for each country though I am interested to see if goods from the Kaesong Complex in North Korea will be allowed to be exported to the US.

I guess we will see what happens next month with the FTA.

For those that haven’t read my prior postings on this topic I highly recommend that today be a good time to do so:

• GI Myths:  The 2002 Armored Vehicle Accident
•  Top Five Lessons Learned from the Tragedy
• Scenes of the Highway 56 Memorial and Accident Site

The South Korean military may send U.S. forces residing in South Korea to Baengnyeong Island, one of the five western border islands closest to North Korea. The islands include Yeonpyeong Island which was shelled by North Korea last November.

A South Korean military official related to the matter told the JoongAng Ilbo yesterday that the decision, if made, would be to “heighten restraint against North Korea.”

According to the same source, the Blue House considered sending combat troops from the U.S. forces to Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong islands after last November’s shelling. However, the plan had fallen through due to opposition from the U.S. military. As a result, the South Korean military is now pushing for U.S. communication troops to be sent to Baengnyeong Island instead, although the size or time of the deployment has not yet been decided, the source said.  [Joong Ang Ilbo]

In my opinion this appears to me to be an attempt by the South Koreans to use the American soldiers as a way to make North Korea think twice about shelling these islands because it is one thing to kill ROK military troops, but they would open a whole other range of possible scenarios by killing US troops stationed on the island.  It is something I think would definitely make the North Koreans think a little bit longer and harder before attacking the island.  However, something else that the South Korean government probably finds favorable about putting US troops on these islands is that they can then push off responsibility for a response to a North Korean provocation to the US government.  If the US responds to a North Korean provocation such as bombing an artillery site that attacked the island and the North Koreans respond in kind with an attack that kills civilians in Seoul, the Korean government has domestic political cover because they can push responsibility for what happpened on to the United States.  This is likely the same rationale once again in my opinion on what the ROK government keeps putting off the Operational Control issue as well for as long as possible. 

Any decision to respond to a North Korean provocation needs to be a ROK government decision and not the US.  That is why I am a strong supporter of the US giving Operational Control to the South Koreans as soon as possible as well as continuing with the USFK transformation plan to remove the 2nd Infantry Division from near the DMZ and US troops out of Seoul to Camp Humphreys which is further south and out of artillery range.  These changes will further push responsibility on to the ROK government to be the ones to decide how to respond to a North Korean provocation

Many Korean civilians were mobilized to spray various chemical defoliant products near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in the 1970s, an environmental civic group claimed Wednesday, citing the testimony of a farmer who was part of the operation.

It is the latest in a series of claims related to the improper management of toxic chemicals by the U.S. Army here, followed by recent allegations that Agent Orange and other chemical substances were dumped in U.S. military camps in the 1970s.

“He (the informant) said he and probably many other civilians were requested to spray defoliant without any protection not knowing what it was back then,” said Shin Hyun-ho, an official from Green Korea United. “He was simply informed that what they were using was a chemical to kill weeds, given no protective instructions or gear.”

The official said the defoliant they allegedly sprayed was different to Agent Orange. It was first known in 1999 that the U.S. and Korean troops sprayed defoliant products on the heavily fortified border where North Korean infiltrations frequently took place in the 1970s.

But they are the first allegations that civilians were mobilized to spray the toxic chemicals.

Since the farmer, who wanted to remain anonymous, joined the operation, he has suffered from asthma due to exposure to the chemical, but failed to receive any compensation, Shin said.

“Back then, the U.S. military gave the defoliant to people without any regulations. The civilian says he has kept some residue of the chemical defoliant as evidence to receive compensation,” the official said.  [Korea Times]

First of all Green Korea has little creditability on environmental issues since it focuses on USFK and anti-US issues like the mad cow nonsense, while mostly ignoring the massive pollution concerns all around Korea though they will occasionally protest something that Lee Myung-bak is doing.  Let’s not forget how the environmental movement in Korea was linked to a North Korean spy scandal a few years ago.

Green Korea clearly has a creditability problem so lets now focus on the guy making the claims.  First of all, did he make any prior compensation claims?  It seems pretty convenient that he pops up now asking for compensation.  This seems like a basic fact that the Korea Times should have asked, but I quit expecting journalism out of the Korea Times a long time ago.  Secondly what is the defoliant if it is not agent orange?  Why didn’t the guy keep the original bag of defoliant instead of putting in into the rice bag shown above?  Until further evidence is provided I find this claim of him spreading agent orange or any other toxic chemical suspicious.

Despite the creditability problems with Green Korea and the claimant that doesn’t mean that defoliants were not spread by civilians along the DMZ:

Defoliants were dumped at the demilitarized zone (DMZ) at the end of the 1960s.

The Defense Ministry said Thursday that the U.S. Forces Korea Command issued an order to dump defoliants at areas near the DMZ in March 1968. The ministry said around 26-thousand people were mobilized to dump some 220-thousand liters of defoliants in 1968 and 1969 under supervision from U.S. forces.

The dumping incident was classified as a military secret.

Testimonies have also emerged that private Korean citizens were mobilized to dispose of the chemicals in the 1970s.

The announcement comes in the wake of several U.S. veteran claims that chemicals, including the toxic defoliant Agent Orange, were buried at U.S. Forces Korea bases in the late 1970s.  [KBS Global]

What is unclear is whether this was agent orange or not?  I have never heard of agent orange being spread by hand, I have always read that it was sprayed by air.  Could these defoliants that were spread by hand have been other more conventional defoliants that are not toxic like agent orange is?  I don’t know but it seems like something that a legitimate journalist would try and figure out.

The U.S. military in South Korea will use ground-penetrating radar devices next week for tests of soil on one of its bases in the South where large amounts of the toxic chemical Agent Orange were said to have been illegally buried in the 1970s, the chief investigator in the claims said Thursday.

South Korea and the U.S. launched a joint probe last week following the allegations by American veterans that U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) buried the dangerous chemical near a heliport inside Camp Carroll in 1978.

“As early as next week, we will have ground-penetrating radars that we can put over the location, and we will be able to see anything else buried there,” the lead investigator, Eighth U.S. Army commander Lt. Gen. John D. Johnson, told a local radio station.

“And then if there is any indication of a threat to human health and there will be a test of soil,” Johnson said.  [Korea Herald]

However, I think if they don’t find anything that soil samples should still be taken and joint testing done with the ROK government just to build public confidence that everything is being done to confirm if any agent orange threat remains.  If USFK only does a GPR survey of Camp Carroll and finds nothing but claims that no pollution threat remains I can definitely see the usual suspects in Korea claiming a cover up.  They will probably claim a cover up anyway, but at least by taking the soil samples it gives the claims little creditability.

Tactical vehicles commonly seen in Afghanistan and Iraq made a rare appearance at a live-fire exercise just 10 miles from the Demilitarized Zone on Monday, but officials were quick to say the Strykers were not brought here in response to recent hostilities between the two Koreas.

“There’s always been a commitment toward the (South Korean) forces here and, whether it’s a Strkyer platform or another kind of unit, this is just one of those things we will exercise on a habitual basis,” said Col. Ross Davidson, commander of the 2nd Infantry Division’s 1st Brigade.

The four Stryker vehicles and soldiers from the 2nd Battalion, 3rd Infantry Regiment based in Fort Lewis, Wash., were brought to South Korea as part of the annual Foal Eagle/Key Resolve exercise that started last week. For about 90 minutes, they simulated the seizing of terrain from an enemy. And while the sound of munitions that echoed throughout the valley might not have been loud enough to reach the DMZ, leaders from the North are sure to get reports about the event courtesy of the 100 media members who were in attendance.  [Stars & Stripes]

You can read more at the link.

TRUMP:  Because I watch them and I see what they’re doing to the country, and I understand China, and I understand the Chinese mind. I understand where they’re coming from.  They are not our friend and when I sit down — I sold an apartment recently for $33 million from a very nice couple from China.  Thirty-three million dollars for the apartment, I’m very happy about it, but I sit down with people and I talk to ‘em, from China, and really much more so prior to when I thought I may be running for president, because they’re not stupid people.  They’re very smart people.  They told me very, very distinctly that they cannot believe how stupid our representatives are in the United States.  They cannot believe that they can continue to take all our jobs — you know, through the manipulation of the currency, of their currency, they make it almost impossible for our great companies to compete and –  [Rush Limbaugh Show]

I recommend reading the entire transcript because he has much more to say about the Chinese and what he would do about them. Trump blames powerful lobbyists hired by the Chinese for the US government allowing the Chinese to get away with what they are doing.  I think a bigger issue is that the US government is addicted to spending and since there is no money left, the politicians need to borrow Chinese money to keep the spending going.  Because of this you will hear some politicians talk tough against the Chinese, but none of them take any real action.  Would a President Trump take any real action against the Chinese?  He may but I don’t know if he could get the Congress and I’m talking both Democrat and Republican to go along with him to implement his recommended economic policies against China.

Anyway the Chinese weren’t the only country he took shots at, South Korea was subject to criticism as well:

TRUMP:  Rush, we’re not only talking about this one country.  You look at South Korea, what they did.  We signed a trade pact that nobody in their right mind would have signed.  And it was so bad, and yet they didn’t want to sign it.  Now, two months ago when bombs started getting lobbed over by North Korea and we send this incredible aircraft carrier, the George Washington and 17 destroyers heading right to North Korea, all of a sudden they sign and they announce that they are friends of our country.  It’s a lot of crap.  They make billions of dollars of, let’s call it profit, off the United States, Rush, billions of dollars.  Why aren’t they paying for protection?  We protect South Korea, and I know the Koreans very well.  I had a partnership with the Koreans that was a fantastic partnership.  I built Trump World Tower with Daewoo, which was a Korean company, and I did very well and they did very well.  So I understand the people.  And, by the way, I don’t dislike the Chinese people, I don’t dislike the Korean people, because if I were them I’d be doing the same thing.  If our leaders are so stupid that they allow what’s happening — we can’t have jobs created, Rush, in this country if China is making all of our products.

You can read more at the link, but Trump is obviously not very happy about the US-ROK FTA because he feels that even with the FTA the South Korean government is still making it too hard for US companies to sell products in South Korea.  Trump also believes that the South Korean government should pay more for military support from the United States such as when the US send aircraft carriers as show of forces against North Korea.

I am not sympathetic to charging for aircraft carriers since this is a response that is part of a defense obligation treaty the US has signed with South Korea.  However, I am sympathetic to an effort to get South Korea to pay more than the 43.5% they currently pay for the upkeep of US forces in Korea, which really isn’t 43.5% anyway.  South Korea is no longer a poor undeveloped country, I think a 50/50 split of the cost sharing of USFK is more than reasonable, but the Koreans are tough negotiators and continue to get greatly discounted deals from the US.  Like Trump says in the interview, you can’t blame the Koreans because the US government allows them to get away with it.  It is just good business sense by the Korean government and poor business decisions by the US in regards to USFK cost sharing.

Judging by this interview, if Trump decides to run for President it appears that sound business decisions in the interest of the US is how he is going to run the country if elected.